On September 11 of 2001, 19 men hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and into an open field in Shanksville PA. These men were al-Qaeda terrorists doing the deeds in the name of a holy war against the West and not much about the attack remains a mystery unless you subscribe to the inside job theory, which isn't my case. What authorities haven't been able to explain is the hijackers' several trips to Las Vegas despite what has been dubbed to be the broadest investigation in city. All these trips happened within a few months before the attacks, but the men behind them left very little evidence of their activities in the area.
TIMELINE
May 24 - Marwan Al-Shehhi, the pilot who crashed the United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Towers of the WTC, arrived to Las Vegas from San Francisco and rented a room at Travelodge as a walk in customer. Once there, he called eight other motels.
May 25 - Al-Shehhi walked in the St. Luis Manor, a hotel that wasn't on the call list. At 12:52 pm, he rented a different car, but didn't return the first car until 3:58pm. The unaccounted mileage in both vehicles summed up to 29 miles. FBI believes that these unusual patterns were a conscious attempt to avoid detection.
May 27 - Al-Shehhi made it to New York.
June 7 - Ziad Jarrah, pilot of the United Airlines 93 that crashed in Shanskville while on its way to the Capitol Building, arrived to Las Vegas and rented a car at 3:13 pm. He was accompanied by an unidentified man described as "middle eastern looking". When Jarrah asked for directions to Circus Circus Hotel and Casino, the a rent-a-car employee tried to give him an answer but was interrupted by the unidentified man who suggested another route. The man's knowledge of the address suggests that he was familiar with the area or that he had been in Las Vegas before.
June 10 - Jarrah took a flight to the Baltimore Washington International Airport leaving his rented car with a mileage exceeding 200 miles and no trace of his Las Vegas whereabouts .
June 28 - Mohamed Atta, pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 that crashed into the North Tower of WTC and leader of the hijackers, arrived to Las Vegas at 2:41 pm and rented a car at 4:25 pm. At 6:40 pm Atta established an account at Cyberzone internet café and used the computer for one hour and thirty five minutes.
June 29 - Atta checked into Econo Lodge Motel at 1:01 pm. He logged in at Cyberzone again at 2:21 and 6:21 pm. Once done, the FBI believes he went back to his hotel.
June 30 - Atta accessed his Cyberzone accounts at 1:56 pm, 6:30 pm and 9:33 pm. The mileage analysis indicated that he returned to his hotel afterwards. This day as well as the day before, Atta had placed several call to Al-Shehhi as well as to two different number in Houston, TX. One number was unassigned and the other one belonged to a mobile salesman.
July 1 - Atta returned his rented vehicle at the airport at 5:12 am and took a flight to New York that connected in Denver. The vehicle had 73 unaccounted miles of usage which the FBI believes would cover a round trip to the Hoover Dam.
July 31 - Waleed al-Shehri, hijacker of the Flight 11, took a flight from San Francisco to Las Vegas where he stayed for 45 minutes while waiting for another flight to Miami. It is unclear to me whether this was a tactical flight - the hijackers were believed to take flights to study their trajectory as well as entrance to the cockpit-, or just a connection.
August 13 - Hani Hanjour and Nawaf al-Hazmi, pilot and hijackers of the American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon arrived to Las Vegas at 11:18 am. At 11:58 am, Atta arrived to Las Vegas to and rented a vehicle at 1:46 pm. The FBI assumed that the three men met, but no activity from Hanjour and al-Hazim was recorded from that trip. Atta accessed a room at the Econo Lodge at 2:55 pm and connected at the Cyberzone at 11:26 pm, getting back to his room at 12:46 am.
August 14 - Atta returned his rented car at 11:09 am leaving no unaccounted mileage and took a flight outside Las Vegas. Hanjour and al-Hazmi boarded a flight at 11:29 am.
THEORIES
A) Al-Qaeda was looking to target Las Vegas area
As noted in Atta's first trip, the unaccounted mileage added up to a round trip to the dam from his hotel. However, Atta's vehicle was not among the recorded license plates in the parking garage of the dam. If the hijackers had connections in Las Vegas area, which seems to be the case with Jarrah, Atta might have traveled to Boulder City or any other town close to the lake and gotten to the dam with someone else in a different vehicle. It should also be noted that both Atta and al-Shehhi stayed in hotels close to the Stratosphere, a hotel and casino located in the highest building of the city. Being known as the Sin City, Las Vegas could have been a attractive target for jihadists looking to rebel against what they perceived to be the westernization of their home countries and culture.
B) Hijackers were exchanging information with other Al-Qaeda members
The FBI emphasized the short duration on hijacker's trip to Las Vegas saying that it was just long enough to exchange information. Authorities believe that Atta was not only looking at flight on the East coast but he also kept in communication with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, a potential 20th hijacker who had been denied entry to the United States and acted as an intermediary between Al-Qaeda and the other hijackers. Jarrah's mystery companion and the complete lack of evidence of his whereabouts point to possible terrorist acquaintances residing or staying in Las Vegas that are yet to be identified. The FBI summary mentions two persons of interest: Lotfi Raissi and Zakaria Hassan Ibrahim.
Raissi started attending the Sawyer School of Aviation in 1998 one month after Hanjour quit. Two days after Jarrah left Las Vegas, Raissi arrived to the city with his wife and stayed there until June 18. His stay didn't overlap with that of the hijackers and he claims he went to Las Vegas to celebrate his honeymoon. On September 21, Raissi was arrested near Colnbrook, UK, where he had been living at the time of the attacks. Prosecutor Arvinder Sambei claimed that the FBI had footage of him celebrating an event with Hanjour and that his flight logs from March 2000 to June 2001 were missing. It has also been claimed that Raissi was training five of the hijackers. No such proof was presented to the courts and the man in the footage turned out to be his cousin and not Hanjour, as it had been previously claimed.
Hassan Ibrahim had previously been convicted for trafficking in fraudulent passports and visas. He was the person to provide Mir Aimal Kansi, CIA headquarters shooter , and Mohammed A. Salameh, perpetrator of the 1993 WTC bombing, with fake documents. He was reported to have spent most of July in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, not much information about this individual is accessible so I could not verify if any connection between him and the hijackers was formally established.
C) Hijackers went to Las Vegas as a final pleasure stop before committing suicide
This theory was briefly mentioned by Evan Thomas, journalist, and quoted by criminologist Adam Lankford in his psychological autopsy of Mohamed Atta. According to the author, Atta and the other hijackers - Hanjour and al-Hazmi - might have visited Las Vegas because maybe " they wished to be fortified for their mission by visiting a shrine to American decadence".
While not much is known about Hanjour and al-Hazmi, Atta has been alluded to by the people who knew him as a sexually repressed man who experienced extreme discomfort around women and the mildest hint of sexuality. When years of repression build up an uncontrollable sexual urge, the individual might end up participating is risky sexual activities. Nevertheless, the circumstances of the trip make sex and gambling very unlikely motives. Their stays were short, happened across different months and there was no evidence of them visiting casinos or any similar venues. Strippers supposedly identified al-Shehhi as one of their patrons, but evidence was not conclusive. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that a quick visit to the strip club was anything more than a fun opportunity while pursuing a bigger goal.
I personally believe that the hijackers visited Las Vegas to coordinate the attacks with other members from Al-Qaeda who flew under the radar (no pun intended).
SOURCES:
Las Vegas investigative summary
Theories on why 9/11 hijackers visited Las Vegas
David C. Henley: 9/11 hijackers visits to Nevada remain a mystery
Wikipedia entry for Mir Aimal Kansi
Wikipedia entry for Mohammed A. Salameh
Cracking the terror code
EDIT: Thanks for the awards people!

Ramtidings, dear friends! It is I, your dutiful lord and master, the eternal GM. My sabbatical proved most fruitful, having figured out some depth mechanics for 3 dimensional combat in my pet project, Blood & Thunder, a maritime piracy RPG that has been both a joy and a nerve-wracking nightmare to create. If you want to see what's going on with that, you can swing by patreon.com/BlackFlagPrintingPress to take a look or support my endeavors. But I digress, because I did not come here today to talk about Blood & Thunder, no. I came here with something else in mind, good friends, for while I have been writing my bread and butter, you have gone without your beard and butter, and this is unacceptable! And so, I have trawled the depths of my memory to bring you yet another TAAAAAALE FROM THE TABLETOP, lovingly subtitled A Prologue Into Poverty.
Life is not an easy thing. There was a time when life was very difficult for me. I had far less than most, and I went without frequently, my entire life loaded into a backpack of bare necessities. Joys were few and times were hard, but I made the best of it. I traveled the countryside, mostly alone, making friends where I could amongst the other forgotten souls who haunt the streets of the United States. I met a good number of people, many of them listless drifters in their own right, who became fast friends. We would hang out for a time, but like all drifters, we would eventually part ways, called to different places to do different things. I had just come from North Carolina. I had been in Asheville, playing bluegrass to make money with friends who eventually proved dishonest, and so I parted ways with them. While in Asheville, I had met a girl, also on the road like myself, and I developed a massive crush on her. Fortune would have it that our time together was short lived, as she disappeared on a freighter down the train tracks, and I layed curled up in a bush sick as a dog for the next 3 days.
You can't get a ride from a freighter with 8 people without getting pulled off by johnny law. Our group had fractured, and myself and one other soul continued on our own, until we parted ways in Atlanta. Now, on my own, clueless and green, I wandered aimlessly, until a friend of mine at the time reached out to me by way of the internet. He had work for me, back in California, if I could just make it there. What's 3000 miles? I've got this. I walked out of Atlanta, hitched a series of rides to Arkansas, and then caught a freighter myself, all the way back to the west coast while UP did the driving. I laid on the back of that train for 3 days until I finally ran out of water and decided to get off. I was in Los Angeles. After a bit of panhandling, I got a bus into the central valley, and my friend came and scooped me up. I worked on my friends farm for a bit, building green houses and stacking money until the time came for me to once again depart. During that time, my crush from North Carolina had found me on Facebook. We got to talking.
She told me she had gone back home to Wisconsin and was working in some greasy spoon trying to save up money to afford a bus. She'd been back for awhile now, but wasn't making any headway. Her vices were getting the best of her, and she couldn't seem to get ahead. I told her she needed to knock that shit off and clean up her act. After a long enough time talking, however, things started to get flirty and dirty.
I wanted to see her, and it's actually amazing what a guy will do for love. You're how far away? Piece of cake. Hold my beer. With the work season coming to a close, I took my pay and my leave of my old friend, and he dropped me off in Modesto at the Greyhound. On the way out, he loaded me up with gifts for my travels - a new backpack, socks, a sleeping bag, some snacks for the ride... and naturally, he gave me a gift that I always treasure. He gave me a set of RPG dice. I gave my boy a hug, wished him well in his endeavors, and promised I'd be back in the fall to help him with the harvest and gathering firewood. So I went on my merry way.
I absolutely despise Greyhounds. Have you ever been on one? It's miserable. There's no room to stretch out unless you sit in the back, right by the toilet. Some asshole is always blaring garbage mumble rap on his phone all day long. It doesn't matter who you are - at the end of the trip you exude the pungent aroma of a neckbeard. This didn't bother me too much - personal hygiene suffers when you have no way to bathe regularly, so I was used to being dirty, and my friends from the road were usually very dirty people in their own right at the time, so I could handle a certain degree of grossness... within limits. I did shower at my friend's farm before I boarded that bus, though, and was feeling rather spiffy - clean body, clean clothes. Life was good and I was on my way to see my woman.
I did my best to zone out. I tried to sleep as much as I could and ignore the general atmosphere of the bus, but that was no longer an option after a layover in Las Vegas. We boarded the bus once more after an almost 24 hour delay on our schedules, and finally got moving again. I sat in the back near the toilet, as I was no stranger to this game and wanted that bench seat, and foul smells at the time didn't bother me much... or so I thought. With the bus filling up and the seats reducing to slim pickings, it dawned on me that my coveted back seat bench was going to get shared. Then, I saw him... the Busbeard.
I'm usually a pretty nice person, but I did not want my coveted backseat benchseat getting taken up, let alone by this massive lardass that now lumbered towards me. I did everything in my power to seem as big and hostile as I could. This was all in vain, however, as some people cannot read social cues. I stared at him, dripping hostility, mentally repeating sit somewhere else like it was a Zen mantra. However, nobody wanted him to sit by them either, and so, he made his way, closer and closer, as he asked people if seats were taken until he got to me at the back. He shifted to sit into the seat, angling his ass in the general direction of my face. The smell of soggy feces-laden underwear wafted up as he slid his bulk onto the bench.
Did I mention that personal hygiene suffers on a greyhound bus ride, especially when you've been riding for days? I've taken my fair share of Greyhounds, and it's unlikely that this new arrival had been riding for awhile. He was eastbound, like the rest of us, and we were in Las Vegas. His point of origin was... not very far east. I had only been on the bus for approximately a day so far, minus the extended layover time of course, so I was getting a ittle sweaty myself, but this guy smelled as if he not only lived on this bus, but was born in the blue poop goop of the latrine. It was a question worthy of debate as to whether this man had actually employed the use of a speed stick in his life. His patchy jowels jiggled at me as he said, hi.
I responded with a gruff and monotone hello, and then turned my attentions to the window, watching the bus depot workers loading up suitcases beneath. My fate was sealed. This man was to be my travel companion all the way to Denver. I decided then that maybe it would be best to ignore him. I plugged in my phone, booted up an emulator I had downloaded, and started to play some Pokemon to whittle away the hours. It didn't take long, however, before I could feel his olfactory looming become physical looming as he examined the screen upon which I played from over my shoulder.
Busbeard: Pokemon? I fucking love Pokemon! I didn't know you could play it on a phone. How are you doing that?
His heavy respirations were like an infusion of green spearmint and halitosis.
GM: Emulators.
I went back to my game, trying to angle myself away from him in such a way that he couldn't lean over my shoulder and watch me as I trained my team, but I was effectively sandwiched between him and the wall, forced to sit straight as he leaned over and watched me play. I debated then, what I ought to do. Playing Pokemon would make the time fly, but I would be crushed between the window and a sweaty fat man. Not playing Pokemon would save me the physical agony of being squished, but I would be painfully bored for seemingly endless miles, and he may use it as an opportunity to interact further. A decision needed to be made.
I shut the emulator off and put away my phone, turning my attention back out the window as the bus pulled out of the Las Vegas terminal and began down the freeway. It was not long after we had pulled out of the station, however, when that wheezing, rasping voice chirped up again.
Busbeard: So where are you going?
I ignored him, focusing on the casinos towering in the distance of the skyline, pretending as if I hadn't heard the question, or as if it weren't addressed at me. With insistance, he repeated his question at my turned back again, searching for a response within my stony exterior. I mumbled, the Midwest, and he questioningly grunted, and asked me to repeat myself. I guess we're doing this.
GM: I'm going to the Midwest.
Busbeard: Where in the Midwest?
GM: Wisconsin.
Busbeard: I've never been to Wisconsin before, but I know they got really good cheese! Hyuk hyuk... Is that why you're going there?
Judging by his smell, he must have been an excessively avid connosieur of fine Wisconsinite cheese. However, cheese was the last thing on my mind at the time.I was enamored with my lady love.
GM: I'm going to see an old friend.
Busbeard: Oh, that's cool... who is it?
The odds of this man knowing the person who I was on my way to visit were astronomically low. Your odds of getting struck by lightning, winning the lottery, and becoming president in the same day were probably higher than this cretin knowing the one specific person whom I was going to go visit in some backwater Wisconsin town. Still, I humored him, and in the same flat voice, answered his question, and told him I was on my way to see my sweetheart.
This caught Busbeard's attention. For a grown man in his mid 30s, he let out a loud "oooooooo" like a middle schooler would when he finds out his friend has a crush. I contemplated execution methods and the subjective severity of their barbarism as he excitedly asked me where she was from.
GM: Wisconsin.
Busbeard: Yeah... but, where in Wiconsin?
GM: Fuck off, dude. I'm not going to tell you the town where she lives.
Busbeard: Heh! I'd be terrified of telling a superior male like me where my girlfriend lives, too. A little kid like you wouldn't stand a chance next to a man like me. Her panties would hit the floor from one whiff of my pheromones. It happens all the time, bro, I swear. I could have any woman on this bus. They just can't resist me. They can sense my manhood, I know it.
I shouldn't stir the pot. All common sense tells me that I should just stop myself while I'm ahead, but sometimes... sometimes I just can't help myself. I've always been a pretty reserved and self-contained person for the most part, and I just want to be left alone 90% of the time to do my thing. Apparently, that's a lot to ask, because every now and then, somebody comes and invades my personal space with their protruding belly, bad breath, and self-aggrandizement, and then I find it really hard to resist my inclination to fuck with them. I know, I know, it's wrong of me to do that, but I'm human, damnit, and something good was cooking in the kitchen. What's the harm in dipping a spoon into this self-important concoction of body odor and bravado?
GM: Any woman, huh? Tell ya what, Busbeard, I just got paid, and you seem really confident in the power of your, ahhhhh, pheromones, so... how about a wager.
I laid out the terms of my devil's bargain. With a wager of 100 dollars, I would pick a lady on the bus at the next break. Busbeard would then have to seduce her. He MUST "present" his pheromones to her, naturally. If he recovered her phone number, or anything in excess thereof, like a kiss or a consensual toilet stall consummation, it would suffice to meet my criteria and loose my grasp from the freshly printed Franklin in my wallet. He agreed enthusiastically to my terms, insisting I was going to loose and he was going to get his dick sucked in a Greyhound portajohn "blumpkin style".
We rode along in silence for the next hour or so. The sun was high in the sky when we made our next stop at some gas station in Utah, and everyone filed off the bus to stretch their legs and get their snacks. I wandered around, huffing down my smoke, chatting it up with people and making friends, seeing just who they were, asking them questions - where they were going, who they were going there with. I got to talking with one guy and his girlfriend.
The guy, who we will call Sarge, was built like a brick shithouse and was a former infantry man who served 2 tours of duty in the middle east. He was traveling with his wife, a young and pretty little thing who we will call Alexandra. They were on their way back to the east coast to stay with family. Alexandra's mom was getting old and had asked them to move in to help take care of her. They were on their way out there to steward her aging mother's estate. I remarked that that was awfully kind of them, and sincerely wished them the best on taking care of Alexandra's aging mom. I told them a little bit about myself, as well... that I was effectively living on the road, playing life by ear, and on the way to see a loved one of mine for a bit before the wind blew me somewhere else.
Eventually, the bus driver gave everyone a 5 minute warning before departure, and we all filed on board. I moved back to my seat and waited for Busbeard to arrive. He came back, cradling piles of gas station sandwiches, bags of chips, and a couple of sodas in his massive paws. He sat down beside me with a loud "oof" and offered me a drink, saying that it's the least he could do before he took my money. I took that beverage. It was both cold and delicious.
GM: Well, Busbeard, I've done my rounds, and I've come to a decision.
Busbeard: Who is it? She better be hot. I swear to God, if you make me waste my time on some dried up roastie, I'm gonna be so fucking pissed at you dude.
GM: Why would I do that dude? Naturally, I only want the best for you. No, she's very pretty. You see that girl over there, in the aisle seat? That's the one. Make your move whenever you're ready.
I pointed out Alexandra to him. I already knew this was going to end very poorly. There was no way in Hell that Alexandra would express any interest in this disgusting lardass whatsoever when she had a stable and solid man like Sarge, and Sarge wasn't about to take guff from anyone. Add on to it that Sarge was easily the size of, if not bigger than, the prodigious Busbeard himself. Sarge was also trained to kill and hardened by years of combat in the graveyard of empires. I can fight - I've fought a lot - and I would not want to square up against him under any circumstances. Busbeard was going to get the snot beat out of him and pay me 100 dollars for that privilege.
The bus took off and I listened to the disgusting sounds of Busbeard inhaling the equivalent of 5 pounds of gas station food. I was only halfway through my soda, when Busbeard emitted a satisfied belch that rumbled the seats, and the feeding frenzy had ended in an effervesence of curdling bile and preservatives just as fast as it had begun. He then started to pump himself up for the task at hand. He started to sweat with excitement and latent cardiac arrest as he prepared his pheromonal aura about himself, and then with a gruff, alright, let's do this, he stood up from his seat and waddled down the aisle, his greasy belly bumping into everybody who had chosen an aisle seat.
He approached Alexandra. They were near the front end of the bus, and so I couldn't hear a word that they were saying. I watched Busbeard as he extended an arm and held on to the overhead luggage rack, exposing the damp miasma of corn-syrup infused armpit sweat to his unsuspecting victim. His pheromones were beginning to work their magic over the unsuspecting Alexandra who would soon be enraptured by its juicy spell. I waited, leaning forward intently, when a loud shout broke the silence.
Sarge: BACK THE FUCK UP.
Alexandra started to shout, too, yelling "get the fuck away from me!"
The driver turned back and yelled for everyone to sit down and shut the hell up or he would pull the bus over.
Sarge: Please do! I'm gonna beat this fucking lardass into the pavement! Saying shit like that to my wife? Who the fuck do you think you are?
The bus driver repeated his warning, and Busbeard began to shout his protests, insisting upon his innocence.
Busbeard: B-but, I was put up to it! It was that guy, in the back seat! He said---
He pointed back at me. I yelled back, I don't fucking know that guy.
The bus driver meant his threat, and pulled the bus over. We were on a long and empty stretch on the I-15 somewhere in rural Utah. The last town I had seen was about 20 miles back. It was late spring, and it was getting hot outside that afternoon. The bus driver got out of his seat, walked up to Busbeard, and told him to get the Hell off of his bus. Busbeard kept protesting, when Sarge moved past his wife, and started forcing Busbeard towards the front door.
I've heard the threat of getting kicked off maybe a thousand times on a Greyhound, but I had never seen it play out before. Busbeard was thrown off the bus. Sarge did not join him outside and pummel him into the asphalt, regrettably, as I would have loved to have watched it. Busbeard kept pleading with the bus driver as the driver shut the door on him, sealing him out on the shoulder of a lonely stretch of highway. I breathed a sigh of relief, and stretched out my legs. It was another 15 miles before we saw signs of civilization. A part of me felt bad for Busbeard, but the other part of me said, "if I can walk 20 miles in a day with 60 lbs of shit on my back, he can do an unencumbered 15 and be fine."
The ride continued on in sweet, reclined silence for me until we reached Denver, werein there was another changeover, and this bus was much, much more desolate. The rest of the Greyhound voyage passed without incident, and I spent my time flirting with my lady love and training some Pokemons. At long last, I finally arrived in Wisconsin. She came to pick me up at the bus station, and when we approached each other, we made out like long lost lovers for a good 5 minutes before we finally caught our breath enough to say hello. I got in her car, and spent maybe a week or so with her, before it was time to take my leave. I couldn't live there forever, and so, as fast as I had drifted into her life, once again, it was time for me to disappear. We said goodbye, and she dropped me off at a lonely interstate overpass on the edge of town. I put my thumb out to catch a ride to Anywhere But Here USA.
I planned my next move, and I figured that there were some friends of hers and mine that lived not too far away in the Dakotas, and maybe I would pay them a visit next. I was in the neighborhood, and figured that I might as well say hello. I reached out to them online, and then made my way west again. They were excited for me to come see them. It was only a day into the voyage when I received a message from Janet. It said, "wait for me, I'm catching up." She had packed her backpack again, and was coming after me, hot on my tail. I told her we could meet up at our mutual friend's house.
I dialed ahead to our friends, who we shall call Sarah and Queenie. Sarah used to travel together with Janet for many months before she stabilized, and then settled down. Queenie was one of my friends from North Carolina. He was a loveable chucklefuck of a drifter, missing a few teeth, wore a skirt, and spoke in the most haggard voice you could imagine. Still... he insisted on being called Queenie. He had settled down with Sarah after they hooked up, and they were living at Sarah's house. He was on thin ice there, however, and she was threatening to kick him out.
I arrived at Sarah's and Queenie's, and spent the next few days waiting for Janet to come up on my heels. During that time, Queenie and I played a lot of Magic (he had just gotten into it), and I remembered the dice that my friend in California had given me that were laying unusued in my backpack. I asked him if he had ever played tabletop RPG's before, to which he answered no. I told him that, maybe next time I see him and I'm in a better spot, we could run a game. Eventually Janet caught up, and we prepared to leave Sarah's for good towards our own new horizons. Queenie, however, had finally broken through the thin ice upon which he skated, and was getting thrown out. On the day of our departure, we asked him if he wanted to join us in our travels so he wouldn't have to go it alone.
Thus we began from Sarah's house out into the unknown once again, a cheerful trio, and true to my word, I began to teach not only Queenie, but Janet as well, the joys of tabletop RPGs.
As I'm sure you can surmise, dear friends, that this is not the end of our story, but only the beginning of another chapter. Is Busbeard still alive? What does the future hold for Ramtide's love life? How do a gaggle of vagabond drifters play tabetop games without a table? Some of these questions will be answered, my dear friends, in our next installment of TAAAAAALES FROM THE TABLETOP.
A shoutout to my lovely patrons, Tatoferret and Sillibits. You guys are wonderful. Thank you for believing in the dream.

Hey team, I'm currently trying to put together an investment thesis about ChainLink and I'm trying to:

1. Really understand the value of the LINK token
2. Verify all of my assumptions
3. Have anyone/everyone poke holes in my thesis

Can you help point out where I might be mistaken or verify the assumptions with links to articles/tweets/etc that might act as a good source?
I'm really trying to understand *IF* there is true value and price appreciation in the token. Most of the articles I find online are all price speculation with no backing of *WHY* the price should go up (e.g. big woop if the market cap for BTC goes up. That doesn't actually mean that the marketcap or value of the LINK token will also go up. THAT'S A STUPID THESIS AND YOU MIGHT AS WELL GO TO THE CASINO!
/rant over. Comments & constructive thoughts appreciated. Trolls too. I like trolls.
---------------
Chainlink (LINK) - As smart contracts become more mainstream, they will need oracles to provide inputs from the outside world to execute their contracts. Anything from using the weather (like issuing insurance to farmers for a bad crop year), sport outcomes (like sports betting), obituary information (transferring assets upon death), etc. will all use ‘oracles’ to provide that information. ChainLink works by allowing multiple third parties to provide that information through the chainlink network. Chainlink will require information providers to put up collateral (in LINK equal or greater to the amount at stake in the original smart contract) to compensate users if they provide wrong information.
E.g. If I use an ethereum smart contract (or other blockhains such as polkadot), to pay Steven $20 if it rains tomorrow @ noon in Denver, CO, then I’d likely put ~$22 into this smart contract ($20 for the bet, $1 for ‘gas’, and $1 paid in LINK to the info provider (the % of contract or actual numbers don't matter here for this example). In that instance, an oracle or information provider would stake $20 (or more) in LINK as collateral and provide the relative information. The oracle would lose their $20 in LINK if the other X providers of the same information don't agree, so there’s an incentive to provide the right info). For providing the right information, the info providers split the $1 F\fee). Because there is a limited supply of LINK, and as smart contracts use more oracles over time, the value of the remaining link that are unstaked go up as there is a fixed supply (but don’t forget the staked LINK goes back into the main pool for more smart contracts as historical smart contracts finish executing - i.e. the LINK required to stake the bet with Steven goes back into the pool after tomorrow).
Said in another way, if I want to sell my data, I need to be more trustworthy than other data providers and thus need to stake more LINK tokens, so I buy more LINK and stake them. This both increases the demand because of my purchase and reduces the supply because what I stake is removed from circulation. Others now need to buy more LINK to stay competitive with me, further increasing demand and reducing supply.
There’s also a ton of value offered to the enterprise data providers. Having any enterprise be able to sell their data to anyone using smart contracts, allows them to generate more revenue while providing more data for smart contracts to use. I.e. there’s an incentive for non-decentralized companies to provide info to the decentralized network over time.
The network becomes more attractive to smart contract creators/users due to the larger amount of data available on it, this causes more users to join, which then causes more data providers to join in order to sell to the increased number of users and so on and so forth.
For those reasons, I think the value of the LINK token will exponentially grow over time.
​

• Risks:
  • You currently cannot stake your LINK as collateral. It’s part of the roadmap - so there’s execution risk here.
    • I *think* this is the largest risk to this currency.
  • It’s unclear to me whether you’ll be able to stake LINK if you’re not an information provider (i.e. I’m not going to run a node or provide this information, I just want to stake my LINK as collateral).
    • I *think* worst case this means that I won’t earn LINK rewards because I’m not an info provider, but I should still benefit from the value of LINK increasing.
  • I don’t see any network effects here blocking other protocols from providing the same information. E.g. I could see ethereum or polkadot choosing another ‘oracle’ protocol other than ChainLink to get decentralized information from the real world
    • I think this lowers the ultimate value of LINK but if this is the only real concern, then I still think it’s worth owning - LINK would still be used, in addition to whatever other platforms come out. E.g. Both Pepsi & Coke co-exist (ok bad comparison, but you get the idea)

​

• Questions:
  • Are there any other ways I'm not accounting for that make LINK more valuable?
  • Anything I'm missing that could make LINK less valuable?

​

• Research:
  • Here is an incredible description of how chainlink works and why it is valuable.
  • Here are projects similar to chain link
  • Here is how chainlink is used.
  • Here are 77 use cases for how this token will be used in the future.
  • Here is the dashboard where once staking LINK becomes possible, this is where it will be done.
  • Here is another amazing visual breakdown of how Chainlink works.
  • Competitors include NEST.
  • Here is linkpools whitepaper.

Week 12 Recap: Meh, not our worst showing this year, haha. How can I be so spot on with game predictions, but still be struggling in my singles plays this season. Very curious. Putting a pin in it to think about, however... Let's move on!
Singles (8-17 -12.87u)
Parlays (0-4 0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (0-1 -4u)
BBDLS (0-6 -2.2u)
​
Sunday Games
Detroit at Chicago: Lions just fired coach and GM. Chicago has Mitch back. It seems the Lions can't win games without Galloday and Swift. It already appears Galloday is out. Swift is questionable and even if he plays should carry a limited snap count. Chicago essentially starting their playoffs with this game. Does it continue?
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Cincinnati at Miami: Bengals starting Brandon Allen again. He didn't look horrible last week, however without a 105yrd kickoff return for CIN, that games 4th quarter wouldn't have been nearly as close as it was. Miami brought back the FitzMagic last week and he delivered an ABC performance against the struggling Jets, keeping Miami in the playoff contention with an outside shot at still winning the AFC East. While my algo has them with an almost 90% chance of winning, it only has them covering the spread around 42%.
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Indianapolis at Houston: Colts had a hard fall last week, giving up the divisional lead to the Titans. Houston is playing much better now but suffered the loss of two players to suspension this week. My algo has this one closer to a 24-25 IND and thinks Indy only covers 34% of the time. Might even put a little sprinkle on the Texans.
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Jacksonville at Minnesota: Jacksonville played tough last week and is sticking with Glennon. Minnesota has an opportunity to be .500 for the first time this year and an outside shot at the playoffs. Cook and Theilen are back and I expect Min to get the win here. However, Algo only likes a MIN cover 39% of the time.
​
Las Vegas at New York Jets: One would expect the Raiders to take care of business against the winless Jets, however last weeks blowout loss vs. the Falcons doesn't instill the most confidence .Also, last years similar spot and loss is a little scary:
" Las Vegas (6-5), in a battle with Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore for the final two wild card spots in the AFC, were in a similar position last season. And that 3-7 Jets squad thumped the 6-4 Raiders, 34-3, as quarterback Sam Darnold played arguably his best game as a professional, going 20-of-29 passing for 315 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while also rushing for another score. "
Carr traveling East for a 1pm game 🤔
The Jets have decided to roll with Darnold as long as he is healthy.
My algo has this as a projected 27-20 LV with a cover% of only 54. A little worried on this game as I could easily see the Raiders winning 31-13, but also see them losing 20-17. Maybe the play in this one is the Under😏
​
New Orleans at Atlanta: Divisional rematch of two weeks ago. For some reason, just like last year, the Falcon's defense played horribly in the first half, but decides to show up for the second half of the season. They were a little lost in the first match up, but I expect them to have a better defensive showing this time around. NO is 2-0 with Taysum starting. I expect their defense to continue to perform, especially against a divisional rematch. However, I don't think Taysum will fair as well this time around. ATL +3.5, @ home, in the rematch, plus no Brees?
ALGO favors ATL points, and the Under. Might even drop some sprinkles on the cupcake.
​
Cleveland at Tennessee: BIG match up here. Two playoff contenders in the same conference. Both have amazing running games. Cleveland gets back Miles Garret this week. Tenn might be getting back Humphries. My algo has this as TEN -3.5 and a cover of the 5.5 only 36%. You know that means we will be looking dog here. More excited to watch this game and check out 3 of the top 5 running backs right now. (Maybe only 2, but Hunt is pretty ok)
Might be worth a little sprinkle on the cupcakes!
​
New York Giants at Seattle: Giants HAVE won 3 in a row, and their defense is looking decent. However, those wins have come against Washington, Philadelphia and Cincinnati -- teams with a combined record of 9-22-2. (and cincy could have been a loss if Burrow didnt go down)
Seattle is rounding into Superbowl form and on top of their defense starting to gel, get Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde is back after injuries sidelined both for a month.
While I expect Seattle to win almost always, their M.O. is winning close games. So double digit points is not something I will look at against a defense capable of scoring.
​
LA Rams at Arizona: Rams horrible loss last week. It's like Shanahan just knows how to out coach McVay. Arizona hasn't really won a game (besides a last second hail marry) in a month. If they were a playoff contender, they should have taken care of New England last week. Majority of $$ on AZ right now, yet the line opened at -1 and has climbed to LA -3 in most spots. RLM on the minority always has me looking that way.
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Eagles at Packers: Eagles have looked like trash. Packers have shined like gold. My algo has this only GB -5.5 so as the line climbs higher, I can't help but look at Philly. Their perception is trash, however their defense is decent. Tied for second in sacks this year and 5th in 3rd down completion percentage. (their defense vs opponents offense) If this was a normal year I would LOVE some philly sprinkles.
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New England at LA Chargers: I am going to avoid this game. I personally love Bill B and this year have taken a liking to Justin Herbert. The line is almost nothing so I can't see much value here in a coin flip game.
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Denver at Kansas City: Primetime divisional battle. Does anyone give Denver a chance to Win this game? Outside of Mahomey getting taken out of the game and a ton of penalties giving DEN great field position for a ton of scores...No. But also, how often have you ever seen me ride double digit lines. If it is, it is the dog. And do I step in front of the KC pain train? No. Skip
​
Mon/Tue games: Leans on PIT ml, SF ml, DAL spread
​
I have 30u of FB to use this week. You know they are going in the parlay section :D
Singles (76-103, -38.03u)

• CHI -2.5 (1.15u to win 1u)
• Cincy +10.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• HOU +3.5 (1.15u to win 1u)
• HOU ML (1u to win 1.45u)
• ATL ML (1u to win 1.25u)
• CLE +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Landry 4.5 Rec Over (1.1u to win 1u)
• LAR -2.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• PHL +9.5 (1.2u to win 1u)
• 49ers -1 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (6-27, +37.76u)

• MIA, MIN, LV, SEA, LAR, KC, PIT (FBu to win 100.72u)
• MIA, MIN, LV, SEA, LAR, KC, PIT, CLE +6.5, HOU +6.5, ATL+4.5, CHI +4.5, SF ml (FB to win 298.81u)

Teasers (2-3, +23.38u)

• ATL Under 49.5 ,HOU +10.5, CIN Under 49.5, LAR +4.5 (2.4u to win 7.22u)
• Might also throw a mask on and go to the Ocean Casino and throw in a teaser card for some fun :D

BBDLS (0-56, -44.09u)

• I have a few in, mostly FBs. One for 1.2u

Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!

On September 11 of 2001, 19 men hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and into an open field in Shanksville PA. These men were al-Qaeda terrorists doing the deeds in the name of a holy war against the West and not much about the attack remains a mystery unless you subscribe to the inside job theory, which isn't my case. What authorities haven't been able to explain is the hijackers' several trips to Las Vegas despite what has been dubbed to be the broadest investigation in city. All these trips happened within a few months before the attacks, but the men behind them left very little evidence their activities in the area.
TIMELINE
May 24 - Marwan Al-Shehhi, the pilot who crashed the United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Towers of the WTC, arrived to Las Vegas from San Francisco and rented a room at Travelodge as a walk in customer. Once there, he called eight other motels.
May 25 - Al-Shehhi walked in the St. Luis Manor, a hotel that wasn't on the call list. At 12:52 pm, he rented a different car, but didn't return the first car until 3:58pm. The unaccounted mileage in both vehicles summed up to 29 miles. FBI believes that these unusual patterns were a conscious attempt to avoid detection.
May 27 - Al-Shehhi made it to New York.
June 7 - Ziad Jarrah, pilot of the United Airlines 93 that crashed in Shanskville while on its way to the Capitol Building, arrived to Las Vegas and rented a car at 3:13 pm. He was accompanied by an unidentified man described as "middle eastern looking". When Jarrah asked for directions to Circus Circus Hotel and Casino, the a rent-a-car employee tried to give him an answer but was interrupted by the unidentified man who suggested another route. The man's knowledge of the address suggests that he was familiar with the area or that he had been in Las Vegas before.
June 10 - Jarrah took a flight to the Baltimore Washington International Airport leaving his rented car with a mileage exceeding 200 miles and no trace of his Las Vegas whereabouts .
June 28 - Mohamed Atta, pilot of American Airlines Flight 11 that crashed into the North Tower of WTC and leader or the hijackers, arrived to Las Vegas at 2:41 pm and rented a car at 4:25 pm. At 6:40 pm Atta established an account at Cyberzone internet café and used the computer for one hour and thirty five minutes.
June 29 - Atta checked into Econo Lodge Motel at 1:01 pm. He logged in at Cyberzone again at 2:21 and 6:21 pm. Once done, the FBI believes he went back to his hotel.
June 30 - Atta accessed his Cyberzone accounts at 1:56 pm, 6:30 pm and 9:33 pm. The mileage analysis indicated that he returned to his hotel afterwards. This day as well as the day before, Atta had placed several call to Al-Shehhi as well as to two different number in Houston, TX. One number was unassigned and the other one belonged to a mobile salesman.
July 1 - Atta returned his rented vehicle at the airport at 5:12 am and took a flight to New York that connected in Denver. The vehicle had 73 unaccounted miles of usage which the FBI believes would cover a round trip to the Hoover Dam.
July 31 - Waleed al-Shehri, hijacker of the Flight 11, took a flight from San Francisco to Las Vegas where he stayed for 45 minutes while waiting for another flight to Miami. It is unclear to me whether this was a tactical flight - the hijackers were believed to take flights to study their trajectory as well as entrance to the cockpit-, or just a connection.
August 13 - Hani Hanjour and Nawaf al-Hazmi, pilot and hijackers of the American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon arrived to Las Vegas at 11:18 am. At 11:58 am, Atta arrived to Las Vegas to and rented a vehicle at 1:46 pm. The FBI assumed that the three men met, but no activity from Hanjour and al-Hazim was recorded from that trip. Atta accessed a room at the Econo Lodge at 2:55 pm and connected at the Cyberzone at 11:26 pm, getting back to his room at 12:46 am.
August 14 - Atta returned his rented car at 11:09 am leaving no unaccounted mileage and took a flight outside Las Vegas. Hanjour and al-Hazmi boarded a flight at 11:29 am.
THEORIES
A) Al-Qaeda was looking to target Las Vegas area
As noted in Atta's first trip, the unaccounted mileage added up to a round trip to the dam from his hotel. However, Atta's vehicle was not among the recorded license plates in the parking garage of the dam. If the hijackers had connections in Las Vegas area, which seems to be the case with Jarrah, Atta might have traveled to Boulder City or any other town close to the lake and gotten the dam with someone else in a different vehicle. It should also be noted that both Atta and al-Shehhi stayed in hotels close to the Stratosphere, a hotel and casino located in the highest building of the city. Being known as the Sin City, Las Vegas could have been a attractive target for jihadists looking to rebel against what they perceived to be the westernization of their home countries and culture.
B) Hijackers were exchanging information with other Al-Qaeda members
The FBI emphasized the short duration on hijacker's trip to Las Vegas saying that it was just long enough to exchange information. Authorities believe that Atta was not only looking at flight on the East coast but he also kept in communication with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, a potential 20th hijacker who had been denied entry to the United States and acted as an intermediary between Al-Qaeda and the other hijackers. Jarrah's mystery companion and the complete lack of evidence of his whereabouts point to possible terrorist acquaintances residing or staying in Las Vegas that are yet to be identified. The FBI summary mentions two persons of interest: Lotfi Raissi and Zakaria Hassan Ibrahim.
Raissi started attending the Sawyer School of Aviation in 1998 one month after Hanjour quit. Two days after Jarrah left Las Vegas, Raissi arrived to the city with his wife and stayed there until June 18. His stay didn't overlap with that of the hijackers and he claims he went to Las Vegas to celebrate his honeymoon. On September 21, Raissi was arrested near Colnbrook, UK, where he had been living at the time of the attacks. Prosecutor Arvinder Sambei claimed that the FBI had footage of him celebrating an event with Hanjour and that his flight logs from March 2000 to June 2001 were missing. It has also been claimed that Raissi was training five of the hijackers. No such proof was presented to the courts and the man in the footage turned out to be his cousin and not Hanjour, as it had been previously claimed.
Hassan Ibrahim had previously been convicted for trafficking in fraudulent passports and visas. He was the person to provide Mir Aimal Kansi, CIA headquarters shooter , and Mohammed A. Salameh, perpetrator of the 1993 WTC bombing, with fake documents. He was reported to have spent most of July in Las Vegas. Unfortunately, not much information about this individual is accessible so I could not verify if any connection between him and the hijackers was formally established.
C) Hijackers went to Las Vegas as a final pleasure stop before committing suicide
This theory was briefly mentioned by Evan Thomas, journalist, and quoted by criminologist Adam Lankford in his psychological autopsy of Mohamed Atta. According to the author, Atta and the other hijackers - Hanjour and al-Hazmi - might have visited Las Vegas because maybe " they wished to be fortified for their mission by visiting a shrine to American decadence".
While not much is known about Hanjour and al-Hazmi, Atta has been alluded to by the people who knew him as a sexually repressed man who experienced extreme discomfort around women and the mildest hint of sexuality. When years of repression build up an uncontrollable sexual urge, the individual might end up participating is risky sexual activities. Nevertheless, the circumstances of the trip make sex and gambling very unlikely motives. Their stays were short, happened across different months and there was no evidence of them visiting casinos or any similar venues. Strippers supposedly identified al-Shehhi as one of their patrons, but evidence was not conclusive. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that a quick visit to the strip club was anything more than a fun opportunity while pursuing a bigger goal.
I personally believe that the hijackers visited Las Vegas to coordinate the attacks with other members from Al-Qaeda who flew under the radar (no pun intended).
SOURCES:
Las Vegas investigative summary
Theories on why 9/11 hijackers visited Las Vegas
David C. Henley: 9/11 hijackers visits to Nevada remain a mystery
Wikipedia entry for Mir Aimal Kansi
Wikipedia entry for Mohammed A. Salameh
Cracking the terror code

So I've just finished Pt2 for a fourth time, and am glad to say I started my fifth run immediately after. I just can't get enough of it. But part of that comes the same issue I had seven years ago when finishing Pt1: day-dreaming about what comes next. And although I've read a lot of speculation, I've arrived at my personal idea of what I think would make a good finale, as it does seem like both Pt1 and Pt2 were acts one and two in a three act play.
FYI: this isn't a fully formed idea, and, like I said, is a product of an obsessive's day-dreams.
So, in my heart of hearts, in Pt 3, I see Ellie seeking out Dina, and returning to Jackson together, alongside J.J. I know that it holds a lot of bad memories for Ellie, but after she left Dina to hunt down Abby, I can see Dina being persistent that they stay in Jackson, as added protection for J.J. as well as herself - this could show Ellie's new goal for the foreseeable future: proving to Dina that she has moved on from Joel's death, and her priority is J.J. and Dina. Ten-or-so years pass, and life in Jackson for the family-of-three is tranquil, and simple. This all takes place within the prologue, as we get to see more of Jackson: further modernisation and expansion, as well as a growing and thriving population. All is well until the Fireflies arrive in Jackson. Led by Abby (with Lev as her second-in-command, perhaps heading her military wing, incorporating the stealth elements of the Seraphites), the group emphasises the 'fire' in 'Fireflies', as flames devour Jackson, and they capture or slaughter all inhabitants. They publicly execute Tommy and Maria, still leaders of their community, as incentive to give up Ellie.
They are hunting Ellie; as the militia group grew over the past decade, they found several doctors, with enough skill and know-how between them to attempt the same procedure that Abby's dad would've performed on Ellie, given the chance. However, now knowing what hangs in the balance and the resistance they had been met with in their first attempt to produce a vaccine, the Fireflies hold the opinion that failure is no option, and they will get Ellie by any means, adopting force as their prominent tool, whilst Abby channels the offensive tactics she'd learned under Isaac in Seattle. Ellie would naturally opt for giving herself up for the safety of Jackson, but before she gets a chance to give herself up, Dina is shot. Her dying wish: save J.J. and get him to safety, to El Paso. She believed some friends she saved from the Ravens in events prior to Pt2 would help, as she'd rescued and returned their daughter whilst in New Mexico. Dina dies in Ellie's arms, as J.J., around the same age as Ellie when she met Joel, stands over them. The loss of her life and the assumption of sole guardianship of J.J. propels Ellie to start to understand the position Joel was in at Salt Lake City, being a choice between saving humankind or protecting someone she loves and feels a parental duty towards. Ellie and J.J. escape, towards Denver, through the Wind River Reservation.
When they arrive, they are met by a small group of Native Americans; their tribe, the Arapaho, were not met by the cordyceps due to their isolation, and although their numbers now dwindle, survived as a tribe. Although at first sceptical and defensive towards Ellie and J.J., they see them, battered and burned, and agree them safe passage. One of the tribe members, becoming worried that his people have run their course, leaves his tribe, and guides Ellie and J.J. as far as Denver on horseback.
Upon reaching Denver, Ellie and J.J. and their guide arrive at the city gate, looking seemingly abandoned, before their guide is shot. Denver is still a QZ, and FEDRA takes no refugees, or prisoners. In the chaos, the two manage to sneak through the sewer. They are met with little resistance in the underground, aside from infected, who are used as defence tools by FEDRA. The local resistance groups have all abandoned the city, as FEDRA starts using the populace as slave labour. Ellie and J.J. hide out in a warehouse, which turns out to be a marijuana growing facility. Whilst holed up, Ellie reminisces to J.J. about her and Dina's bond over the herb. J.J. asks if they can take it, to which Ellie starts to argue he is too young. This causes a conflict of interest internally for her, as she feels again how Joel must've felt. She thinks on it, before realising the reason Joel had thought her too young before: the issue of Ellie being armed. Whilst they talk about it, they are ambushed by FEDRA, who roll up in an pickup, Ellie barely managing to take them all out. This pushes her to arm J.J. with a pistol, in a similar way that Joel had done to her. They take the truck and flee the city under gunfire, J.J. sneakily taking some of the weed in an air-tight jar whilst Ellie is distracted.
They make it to Las Vegas, NM, and hole up there as the truck gets a flat tire. J.J. asks where all the hotels and casinos are, making Ellie laugh genuinely for the first time since Jackson. J.J. reveals the smuggled weed, and Ellie, against her better judgement, agrees to smoke it with him. They find a guitar, and she restrings it as she talks about Dina, Joel, and Jesse as the two of them smoke. She finishes restringing it, but the high caused her to forget she’d lost her fingers, and they laugh. J.J. takes it from her, and plays a few notes, before revealing that he and Dina had been learning to play as a present for Ellie's upcoming birthday. This makes Ellie cry, and they embrace, and go to sleep.
The story picks up with them in a repaired truck, arriving at Truth or Consequences. J.J. points out the weird name of the town, and the "deepness" behind the name. This triggers Ellie to begin thinking of Joel and the consequences of his truth about what happened in Salt Lake City. Distracted by these daydreams, they are caught off-guard with an ambush, similar to the one Ellie and Joel experience in Pittsburgh, this time being delivered by the Ravens, who Dina speaks of in Pt2. They manage to shake them off for a while, before J.J. is captured. Ellie attempts to rescue him, but is captured herself. When she regains consciousness, they are on the road to El Paso, just outside the city.
Ellie manages to escape, but is forced to leave J.J. in captivity. She manages to find a transmitter, and calls out to the Fireflies, letting them know her location. She knows this will be her only chance to get J.J. away from the Ravens, as they will be distracted by the impending Firefly force invading the city. Ellie hides out in an apartment in an abandoned complex in the north of the city - in which she discovers Dina's friends she was supposed to find had resided in, before taking their lives instead of being taken prisoner by the Ravens - which is overlooking the prison which J.J is kept in, as well as the road leading north from the city. After a fortnight of scouting the prison and making an escape plan, she is awoken one night to a warm glow of fire on the northern horizon: the Firefly army, numbering a few hundred, an amount neither the Ravens nor Ellie could possibly hope to hold off against. As they launch their attack, Ellie descends to the prison, learning that all the prisoners have been moved to the southern border of the city, on the cusp of Mexico. The man she learns it from says something along the lines of, "Don't hurt me, I'm a Firefly! I've been waiting for them to rise up again!" to which Ellie replies, "Either way, you're no friend of mine." Before killing him.
She journeys through the city, getting caught between the Fireflies and the Ravens, as well as the infected being drawn towards the huge explosions and gunfire of the newborn war. She finally reaches the prisoners, most of whom pledge Firefly allegiance, and are roaring with cheer, believing Ellie to be a Firefly. She walks along the cages containing them, and shoots them, one-by-one, before arriving at one looking down, silent. She orders him to look up, before J.J. reveals himself, his eyes full of tears at the atrocity she had just committed. She throws her gun down, and starts to cry, before she hears a whistle similar to the Seraphites. She looks over, and lifts her hand up as an arrow impales it, the head stopping short of her face. She cries in pain, and looks to the person who shot it: Lev. And behind him, Abby.
They fight, with Ellie seemingly killing Lev, and is left in a CQC fight with Abby. The is beaten with Abby holding her in a chokehold. As her vision begins to blur, she sees Lev, still alive, taking J.J. out of the cage, throwing him on the floor, and aiming an arrow at him. Ellie becomes overcome with protective rage, managed to use 'mother's strength' to overpower Abby - who believes Ellie is pretty much subdued - and uses Abby's gun to first shoot Lev, then hold Abby and gunpoint. They have a verbal confrontation, before Ellie looks to J.J. - who seems to now understand the nature of people outside of Jackson - and gives an approving nod. Ellie looks at Abby, and says, "I made the mistake of letting you live once, not again." To which Abby replies, "Please, just let me go, I'm finished." Ellie responds, "You'd just come after me." before planting a bullet in Abby's skull. They hear the ongoing war nearby, and look south, to Mexico. They manage to get through the wall, and take a horse from the Ravens stables. The closing scene is the two of them riding away from El Paso and the certainty of death and violence, and towards uncertain safety and peace, which is the better option of the two.
Again, this is just the daydreams of an obsessive, but it comes from a place of love for the series, and I am looking forward to any creative direction the studio decides to take.
I'd really love to hear you guys' opinions of these ideas, and if you'd have any changes. Like I said, I love the series, and any discussion about it. Thanks for reading!

Florida to San Jose in a 1964 Corvette. My buddy spent every penny he had buying it with nothing left over for a tune-up or fresh tires before we took off. (Mistake #1) He picked me up @ Hartsfield in Atlanta at 2 a.m, (long before cellphones....coordinating my late arrival was difficult) we ate at a Waffle House at 3 a.m. and off we went. It was to be all blue highways, back roads, 2-lanes, no interstates or national chain restaurants from that point forward.
A copy of “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” was to be our Bible.
We saw innumerable "See Rock City" signs and drove through the apparent fireworks capital of the free world @ the Georgia/TN border.
The damn Vette kept breaking down, first a clutch in Nashville, later a U-joint near Clarksville. Carb troubles in Nevada. I remember we saw “Weird Science” at the Clarksville theater, long before theaters were all 24-plexes. Afterwards at a bar we told a pair of local ladies we were “Location Agents” in town scouting sites for a film that was going to be shot there. Remember, this was pre-HIV... We were looking for a LAKE that the SUN came up over in the East.......\snicker, snicker**
What surprised us most were the full size satellite TV dishes behind every farmhouse across America. From nothing to 250+ channels with nothing but a check and a bootleg converter. Rural America had gotten wired. Well, dished. News, or what passed for it, was now broadcast 24 hours a day. (Mistake #2?)
Mosquitoes ate us alive at some state park in Arkansas where we’d foolishly chosen to camp rather than get a cheap motel room. We had a cassette walkman to pass the time before sleep came. The waitress at the one cafe in some lonely small town in Kansas assured us “Charlie,” the Frito Lay guy, came by EVERY DAY to refill the rack. We've joked about "Charlie" ever since.
We trailed a shiny stainless Kraft tanker truck across the loneliest highway in America, drafting for better fuel mileage, until he locked up the brakes and turned down a deserted dirt road. Trust me. There were no cows, and no dairies down that road. Must have been Area 51, or something else, cause a “milk truck” had no business being there. Fortunately we just missed creaming his rear bumper.
By this point we were getting around 7 mpg's belching black smoke , until a “19 year Chevy dealership mechanic” in a tiny town in the middle of east nowhere, Nevada, told us “No problem, one bowl on your Holley double pumper has sagged, I’ll file it flat and double gasket it and we were on our way again having barely finished lunch, back into, barely, double digit gas mileage. It was AS IF he had been placed there, just for us.
We camped among the stars in a mountaintop State Park near Eloy, Nevada, decided THIS was the place to hang out after nuclear war. You could see cars approaching from 50 miles away. Big cave, glacier full of icemelt pure water, deer everywhere. Survival city. The gubbmit was inexplicably stringing wire and fiber-optic cables into the cave. Maybe they had the same idea. A tiny casino with two slot machines and some serious alcoholics was Eloy's entertainment offering.
It seemed at every breakdown we ran into JUST the right person to fix the ‘64 for us, although the 10 pound metal glove box door continued slamming into my knees all the way to San Jose. @#$@!!!!
Everywhere we went there was someone wanting to talk to us about the burnt orange, white-striped Vette. Either a parent had owned one, a neighbor or their friend had owned one, or a good friend / cousin had died crashing one. We heard, or shall I say endured, endless Vette stories. (As I do again today, it’s the price of admission).
A fourth and final flat occurred near Lake Tahoe. I was ready to pull my hair out at Dave's frugality. Stopping at endless gas stations looking for ANY used tire that would fit. We were running for home at that point, late on our schedule. I think we did the final 200 miles without a spare.
A fly fishing trip on the South Fork of the North something river outside Denver had been the hi-light of the trip, along with an impromptu color TV repair at the cabin. My buddy pulled a trout out on his first cast, having never fished before. "To catch a fish one must THINK like a fish" he had pontificated,..... and then proceeded to JUST DO IT. Rest of us were amazed. I got skunked by a noob!
A cold solder joint in an old TV was repaired with a nail, held in Vice-Grips, heated red hot over a stove burner. Instantly the football field was green once again. My companion impressed the shit out of me with that piece of wizardry.
Forty years ago and I remember it like it was yesterday. We ultimately had to do about 17 miles on an Interstate somewhere in Utah. No way around. There are no road trips to be had, no stories to be gained, blasting 80mph on a superslab and eating in chain restaurants. Never have been, never will be. 2-lanes, diners, cafe's, that's where you see and talk to America.
We learned to take the road less traveled and to take ALL the time needed with everyone who had a story to tell us. We didn't take nearly enough (film) pictures. Mistake #3.

One more roundup before we leave, alas. Regions are still super approximate. I updated some previous rankings as well.
Tallies: 137 in the Denver metro; 66 in the rest of the Front Range; 33 in the rest of the state. We've visited a total of 236 breweries, cideries, and meaderies in Colorado.

The Rest of the Front Range

• 300 Suns (Longmont): This brewery served me both a smoked cherry sour (YES) and a red ale with a distinct barf aroma, so I'm really split here. Overall, I'm not excited.
• Avery (Boulder): Say what you will about their distributed lineup, but their taproom has some of the cooler small-batch brews out there. We got to attend their invitational twice; it's one of the best beer fests around.
• Berthoud Brewing (Berthoud): The better of two options in this tiny town. That's not saying much.
• Black Bottle (Fort Collins): Big tap list with lots of variety, usually good, sometimes uneven. I once found a lichtenhainer on tap here. I may have squealed.
• Black Forest (Black Forest): Surprisingly good brewery in a tiny forest town just outside the Springs. Better-than-expected beers, sizeable lineup, nice people.
• Brues Alehouse (Pueblo): I guess they're the best thing I've found in Pueblo, but that's a backhanded compliment if ever I gave one.
• Buckhorn (Loveland, RIP): A brewery the size of a small living room with 4-5 beers on tap. The brewer came and chatted with us for a while and seemed like a super nice guy. They made some really cool stuff, including a no-boil, no-hop lacto stout that blew my mind. They shut down not long after we went.
• Cerberus (Colorado Springs): A highlight in the Springs with very good food, too.
• City Star (Berthoud): Nice tap list on their website seems to be months old. Neither of us cared for their actual lineup much.
• Cogstone (Colorado Springs): Friends told us to go to try their chips 'n' salsa beer, which, yes, does taste like chips 'n' salsa. We didn't love anything here.
• Colorado Mountain Brewery at the Roundhouse (Colorado Springs, multiple locations): Bland gastropub with blah beer.
• DC Oakes (Fort Collins): Standard-issue brewpub with its own beer. Nothing to write home about.
• Dostal Alley Casino & Brewpub (Central City): Central City is a gorgeous Old West mountain town where the soulless casinos now seem to outnumber any sort of non-sleazy business. Naturally, when we found a casino with a built-in brewpub boasting GABF medals for their dry stout, we went. Unsurprisingly, the place was sleazy and crappy, with a few phoning-it-in beers and slot machines built into the bar.
• Dratz (Loveland): They were brand new when we visited, and very nice. The beer was... not good. Hope they work out their initial difficulties.
• Echo Brewing (Frederick): Just three weeks after visiting, I remember nothing at all about this brewery, but my Untappd ratings of their handful of run-of-the-mill styles were low. Evidently I wasn't impressed.
• Elevation (Poncha Springs): Does this still qualify as the Front Range? I flippin' adore Elevation, makers of the single best pilsner I've ever had. One of the very best middle-of-nowhere, small-town breweries I've been to.
• Elizabeth Brewing (Elizabeth): Small-town brewery in conservative Douglas County. Pretty meh throughout.
• Equinox (Fort Collins): Pretty good, nothing amazing.
• Estes Park Brewery (Estes Park): Unremarkable.
• Fieldhouse (Colorado Springs): Everything was really middlin'. Tons of dogs, which is always a bonus for me.
• Finkel & Garf (Boulder): Solid, but didn't live up to the hype for me. Seems like they just play it ultra-safe.
• Florence (Florence): Solid with a large tap list in a tiny town far off the beaten path.
• Fossil (Colorado Springs): Solid, but unexciting. Super duper nice people.
• Funkwerks (Fort Collins): Oh, hell yeah.
• Gilded Goat (Fort Collins): Nice, not amazing.
• Goat Patch (Colorado Springs): We finally visited when we were stuck in the Springs after a blizzard closed all roads back to Denver. Pretty good, not amazing brewery in what looks like a former high school converted to gentrified hipster mall space.
• Gold Camp (Colorado Springs, apparently no website): We felt a bit guilty because we got to meet their fabulously nice brewer, but just didn't care for their beers. They seemed closer to homebrew quality at the moment.
• Great Storm (Colorado Springs, RIP): Really nice with some unusual styles and creative ideas. Friendly people. Closed soon after our visit; now Atrevida Brewing.
• Grimm Brothers (Loveland): Cool taproom, some really nice beers.
• Grossen Bart (Longmont): I was kind of disappointed. A lot of beers seemed really off style or just unremarkable.
• Gunbarrel (Boulder): Good IPAs and a nice rosemary beer.
• High Hops (Windsor): Gorgeous patio with view of hop field and gardening center, with a small distillery attached. The beer isdecent, not remarkable.
• Industrial Revolution (Erie): I wanted to like them, based on their shtick. I think we left all of our beers unfinished. Nope.
• Intersect (Fort Collins): Unabashed hipster taproom with piles of old records. Nice folks. Beer generally good, nothing great.
• Iron Bird (Colorado Springs): Nice, but largely unremarkable.
• Jessup Farm Barrel House (Fort Collins): My surprise favorite find on our second CO vacation and one of the very best wild/sour breweries around.
• Kettle & Spoke (Boulder): We kind of just wound up here because they're down the street from Redstone. We found a tiny taproom inside a bike shop with some of the best IPAs in recent memory, and a fantastically nice brewer who offered us an impromptu tour of the production space.
• Left Hand (Longmont): They're exceptionally solid, and I wish they'd strut their stuff a little more. Their Juju series of ginger brews has a special place in my heart.
• Local Relic (Colorado Springs): An experimental brewery in a gorgeous old church that prides itself on never making the same beer twice. They blew our minds the first time we went, and we were in their expensive-ass beer club for a while. Their "no repeats" philosophy unfortunately means that they frequently have several super similar batches on tap at once, a lot of their beers could really use a trial run, and they often bottle things before they're ready. After a few too many bottle bombs and undrinkable yeast shakes, we pretty much stopped going.
• Locust Cider (Boulder): The standard cidery model where everything's inoffensive and the business model is "bring that friend who doesn't do gluten." I just don't care about this form of cider at this point, but they do it just as well as everyone else.
• Loveland Aleworks (Loveland): We like Verboten more, but these guys are another fabulous Loveland spot.
• McClellan's (Fort Collins): I don't care much for British styles, but we enjoyed the beer, food, and a great conversation with a member of the brewing family here.
• Nano 108 (Colorado Springs): Tiny taproom that we really liked in 2015. We went back in 2018 and found some stellar options (their rauchbier omggggggg) and several brews with off-flavor issues. Come for the German styles here; I'm not crazy about their IPAs.
• New Belgium (Fort Collins): Did the tour, visited the taproom. They seem like a good company that just embraces inoffensiveness a bit too hard. Then they sold out, and now I haven't bought anything from them in years.
• The Old Mine (Erie): Good cidery in a gorgeous old brick building in a tiny town.
• Open Door (Longmont): Had good lagers and saisons here. Super nice people in a chill spot.
• Periodic (Leadville): At 11k+ feet, this must be the highest craft brewery we've visited. OK beer, spotty service.
• Phantom Canyon (Colorado Springs): Great beer and service the first time we came, mediocre at best the second time, and only OK ever since. Food is pretty good.
• Redstone (Boulder): Likely the biggest of the tiny handful of meaderies currently in CO. Their stuff trends sweeter than I like, but they have some cool varieties (sunflower mead = yes) and wonderful taproom staff.
• Rocky Mountain (Colorado Springs): Long-running brewery on the outskirts of the Springs. Some sugary sours and hard lemonades that weren't up my alley, along with a very good barleywine. We chatted with the brewmaster for a while, who was a super nice guy.
• Royal Gorge (Cañon City): The only brewery in town and one of few places to grab a bite. They only had one or two of their own beers, which were homebrew quality. Keep driving.
• Shamrock (Pueblo): Like everything about Pueblo, this place was a total disappointment.
• Soulcraft (Salida): Another pretty good small-town brewery a few miles from Elevation.
• St. Vrain (Longmont): Really excellent cidery with multiple ginger ciders and great guest taps.
• Timnath Beerwerks (Timnath): Extremely solid, nice people. They're also more or less down the street from the Swetsville Zoo, one of my favorite roadside attractions in the state.
• Tommyknocker (Idaho Springs): Gimmicky and never better than all right. Two blocks from Westbound & Down, which is the indisputably better option.
• Trinity (Colorado Springs): I've no idea how it took me several years to get to the only brett-focused brewery I've ever found. Huge, consistently good tap and bottle list, great food with good veg options, nice staff. My best brewery find in the Springs to date. They sold in 2020, and we haven't been back since.
• Twisted Pine (Boulder): Solid with some interesting ideas, including a good basil beer.
• Uhl (Boulder): They took over Wild Woods' space in 2020 and opened during the shutdown. They had a few promising weird options, including an unexpectedly lovely peanut butter beer.
• Verboten (Loveland): Our absolute favorite in town. Creative, irreverent, and spot-on.
• WeldWerks (Greeley): I fussed for so long about wanting to come here that it was inevitably kind of a letdown when we finally went. Their beers are good, make no mistake, but definitely not "drive an hour and a half to get it" good.
• Westbound & Down (Idaho Springs): Another hypey place. The beer, food, and service were all good on our first visit but sorta uneven on subsequent trips.
• Wild Cider (Longmont): Standard-issue, above-average cider. Lovely outdoor seating with a gorgeous mountain view.
• Wild Woods (Boulder, RIP): We stumbled in during their anniversary party and loved them. Their smoked yam beer rocked my world. They sadly closed in 2019.
• Wiley Roots (Greeley): ... and now I'm going to contradict the above statement re: WeldWerks directly. Wiley Roots, just around the corner from the above, is worth that drive. Their wild ales are lovely, and while their adjunct stouts can be hit and miss, they're immensely solid overall. Massive pluses include an unusually nice taproom crew, a fluffy brew cat with her own Instagram account (@midnightbrewcat), and the lovely Syntax Distillery next door.
• Zwei (Fort Collins): Kicks the crap out of Denver's Prost as far as I'm concerned. Good beer, great people.

The Rest of Colorado (South, West, Central)

Current category tally: 33

• Angry James (Silverthorne): Pretty much anywhere I go on the way home from the stellar Outer Range isn't really going to get my heart rate up, but we enjoyed our stop here.
• Animas (Durango): Nice and solid; nothing exciting here. Food isn't great.
• BierWerks (Woodland Park): Most of their taps were other people's beers, and the couple of in-house brews we managed to try ranged from so-so to not good. Oh, and they have a Nazi map on the wall for some damn reason!? Ute Pass across the street is an all-around better option.
• Breckenridge (Breckenridge): Macro brewery in the "guess you have to go once" category. The beer was exceedingly mediocre, food was so-so.
• BREW Pub & Kitchen (Durango): My favorite in Durango tbh. Oh, and their food is good, too.
• Broken Compass (Breckenridge): Solid.
• Carver (Durango): Nice people, good brunch. Their beer won't blow your mind, but it's usually solid.
• Casey Brewing and Blending (Glenwood Springs): We bought tour tickets and made a weekend trip out just to go to Casey. My affection for sours is on a steep downward slope, but Casey is stellar, and the tour was delightful and totally worth doing.
• Colorado Vineyards/Rocky Mountain Winery (Palisade): Including them here because they make a lot of mead, which I like, but don't love.
• Eddyline (Buena Vista): Middlin', IPA-focused place in the horrifically named Byoona Vista.
• Glenwood Canyon (Glenwood Springs): One of those breweries that only seem to stay in business because they have a central spot in a tourist town. Nothing interesting here.
• Guanella Pass (Georgetown): Most of the beers we tried were yeasty af. No love from me.
• High Alpine (Gunnison): We stopped here after a trip to Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park, out of our minds with natural beauty. The beer was, unsurprisingly, nothing to write home about, but the food was outstanding and the staff was delightful.
• Highside (Frisco): It's hard to look good when you share a ZIP code with Outer Range. Run-of-the-mill small-town brewery with food, nothing to write home about.
• Mad Jack's Mountain Brewing (Bailey): We pulled off 285 here one afternoon to get out of the rain. Small tap list and tiny tap room, but pretty good beer and a killer food truck out back.
• Main Street (Cortez): Another small-town brewery with not much going.
• Meadery of the Rockies (Palisade): The better Palisade meadery. Again, they like their mead sweeter and gloopier than I do, but it's lovely in small quantities.
• Mr. Grumpy Pants/Ourayle House (Ouray): I like the guy and his shtick a bit more than the beer, but it's definitely the better brewery in town.
• Ouray Brewery (Ouray): The douchey tourist trap option in beautiful Ouray.
• Outer Range (Frisco): The hype is real. ORB makes hands down the best NEIPAs I've ever had, and a stunning range of them. "Downside:" NEIPAs are basically all they do. They have a couple of Belgians, but if you're not into hazy IPAs, this place really isn't for you.
• Palisade Brewing (Palisade): Solid, unexciting.
• Paradox (Divide): One of the best sour-focused breweries around. They may have the most stunning mountain view of any brewery I've been in this state, and that's saying a lot.
• Riff Raff (Pagosa Springs): One of those breweries where they put your pint down in front of you, you take one sip, and you're ready to head out.
• Rockslide (Grand Junction): Nice space, so-so beer.
• San Luis Valley (Alamosa): We stopped here on our way back from my birthday trip in 2019, which coincided with a blizzard that shut down the entire Denver metro. Their beer and food were forgettable, but the fact that I was worried sick about getting home to our pets (we didn't until 24 hours later) the whole time we were there didn't help matters.
• South Park (Fairplay): We stopped here to escape a crazy cloudburst. Beer was OK, food was OK, neither was anything I really need again.
• Steamworks (Durango): Ranges from really good to barely decent. Decent food.
• Telluride Brewing (you guessed it - Telluride): Quite good brewery with nice people in one of the more picturesque mountain towns out there.
• Three Barrel (Del Norte): Ah, Colorado. Where else do towns of 1,700 in the middle of nowhere have breweries with sahtis and sours on the menu?
• Two Rascals (Montrose): Unremarkable.
• Ute Pass (Woodland Park, RIP): This brewery had four different wits on tap, including two black wits.
• Vino Salida (Salida): Yes, tiny Salida and Poncha Springs have two good breweries, a distillery, and a meadery. Dayum.
• Wolfe (Pagosa Springs): Pleasant small-town brewery.

Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/224-multifamily-macroeconomics-in-the-twilight-zone/
Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast, he's been on the show before. He's economist Ryan Davis. He actually joined us at one of our last Wealth Formula meetups. Of course, the last one we had was canceled but Ryan was at the one before that. He serves as a chief operating officer at Witten Advisors and provides fact-based research analysis and discussion to help clients like us formulate their apartment strategies and these insights and for investment decisions for multi-family development and buy/sell opportunities which as you can imagine we're all looking for some of this advice these days. Ryan has a PhD in economics from the University of Texas. Ryan, welcome back to Wealth Formula Podcast.
Ryan: Thank you. Glad to be back.
Buck: Yeah it's been like a pandemic ago when we last talked right? Listen, you know I want to kind of jump into the whole you know what the heck is going on, I mean the overall, if you would, you know kind of give me your overall assessment of the economy. I mean obviously we know these huge drops in GDP etc which were expected last quarter. How is this all affecting real estate asset prices especially you know apartments which is you know is our interest and something that you specialize in?
Ryan: Sure so yeah the great unknown is the pace of the recovery. So we had that big drop through April in terms of employment and then we got a bounce back in May and June and the hope was that it was going to be a V-shaped recovery. But then we saw virus cases ramp back up in the second half of June into the early part of July and the local economy started rolling back some of their openings and so with that, we've kind of stalled out recently. So we'll get the July numbers this Friday for overall payroll gains and that could I think the consensus is anywhere between one, one and a half million jobs it could be negative so who knows but it looks like the hope for a v-shaped recovery in the economy has kind of stalled out after the first two months of optimism. And so we think that going forward we won't see any the worst is behind us really and so we won't see you know the big losses that we experienced in March and early into April so kind of what we're calling for right now is for the national economy to continue to add jobs for the remainder of the year and then beginning next year a recovery should emerge and that would sustain demand for housing and ultimately apartments going forward. In the near term as far as multi-family goes we expect some pain through the end of this year and then into the early part of next year. In terms of pricing power, if we had to boil it down to one number it's rent growth so year over year effective rent growth we think that declines to eight percent rent cuts this year and into the early part of 2021. That varies considerably on a local market basis I think our worst-performing market is Metro New York City probably no surprise there but then also many of the other gateway markets such as Boston, LA, the Bay Area, etc. We expect rent declines to be lower than that eight percent across the board, however many of the inner west, Texas, southeastern market should outperform still see rent declines but not closer to five/six percent range at the depth and so we expect near-term pain but then as we get out into 2021 and afterward and the economy begins to add a lot of jobs we would expect rent growth to return to multi-family. And then what that means for pricing in terms of apartment assets for right now in the second quarter hardly any deals trade at hand so it's really tough to get a sense of where pricing is and with the deals that have traded though the cap rates have remained relatively stable which is a good sign. We've heard from some of our merchant builder clients where they had assets they had constructed and were going out to the market to sell in the early part of April they were saying 10 discounts in terms of the compared to pre corona levels but that has since come back in the last 45-60 days and maybe it's only one to two percent in terms of the haircut that they're seeing out there right now. And there's a just a ton of capital that wants to get back into multifamily at the same time there's hardly any distress out there right now so there's a lack of available to you know supply to buy and so everyone is just kind of in this standstill there's a big ass gap because buyers aren't willing to pay yesterday's prices for assets but sellers aren't willing to give any you know deep discounts right now and so it's kind of a standstill and we’ll see how all this plays out.
Buck: Yeah you know it's really interesting we're obviously you know through, you work with Western Wealth Capital, one of my partners and you know it's funny because we were kind of thinking well maybe there'll be some real buying opportunities but you know we've seen a little bit maybe just you know from buyers who are sellers who just are just wanting to get out while they're ahead maybe they made some money you know maybe they and at this point you know they're just thinking let's just cash out and maybe they're willing to take a little bit less but for the most part you know if you look across our own portfolio and it might be because it's largely again Texas and Arizona, etc that and maybe it's because it's mostly working-class B and you know high C class apartment but our portfolio you know the numbers are just as good as they've ever been in terms of you know occupancy in terms of even our we're still raising rents. And so when you look at that you're like well I mean how do you expect there to be any you know smoking deals out there if the sellers really aren't feeling any distress. So is there a difference you know when you look at something like a B and C class apartment scenario versus A right now or have you been able to break that down a little bit because I think the people I know who are in the A-class and new build are you know they're certainly feeling things a little bit more than we are.
Ryan: Yeah so what we've heard from some of our clients in terms of early on so may June in terms of rent collections class A's were actually from a nationwide perspective actually exceeded the class B and C product. Now we don't think that will continue going forward and the main reason is that new deliveries that are coming online they will compete with the existing top of the market product and so we think that it will be short-lived in terms of the top of the market outperformance and another part is due to just the nature of this downturn where low-wage sectors were hit extremely hard in April, got some bounce back in May and June but the leisure and hospitality sectors lower-paying positions those have been the most impacted so far. But going forward we don't think that this downturn would be any different than prior recessions in terms of the class A leading the way down in terms of jobs and occupancy and also rent growth or rent cuts in the near term. So class A’s will lead the market down but then as we get out into the later part of next year and into early 2022 then class A's would outperform the broader market. So yeah we think through the end of this year until early next that B's and C's will hold up relatively better but that's mainly a function of just the competition that it takes to get these new projects they will get leased up it's just a matter of the market-clearing price and so those have to compete those could be mostly with the top end of the spectrum and so we see big rent declines and concessions in the class A space going forward.
Buck: You know there's this thesis that's going around in the multi-family space and you know I've been sort of you know looking at it this way too for a while though I'm starting to you know feel like it's maybe not gonna happen is this idea that there's going to be a potentially before we really rebound and start heading up again that there’ll potentially be a you know big tsunami of defaults and things like that. Right now at least what I'm you know seeing and hearing about in terms of the lending markets and in terms of these properties, there really isn't much indication of that right now is there I mean what do you think?
Ryan: No at least not in the short term I mean again there's it goes back to my earlier comment there's been no distress really and so that is due mainly to the huge stimulus packages that have been passed those from a fiscal standpoint and a monetary standpoint which is it's crazy to think that GDP declined at an annualized rate by 32 however incomes soared and so that's all due to the stimulus that we saw and so that's helped prop up renters incomes and allow them to pay rent. Now going forward I think some of these the number of defaults I don't think there will be a tsunami, at least that's how we view it right now, ask me again in a week and it could change, but I think that the defaults will be very market specific and so those geographies that have been hit harder we'll see a larger number but many of the Texas markets, Phoenix, Denver, southeast high growth markets where you've got this short-term tailwind in terms of folks at the margin more and the trends that have been in place for years of folks moving from gateway markets into these inner markets will be kind of you know given a stairway shot really in the near term and so that would help to prop up multi-family fundamentals and so yeah if you're expecting a tsunami of defaults in any of those markets that I've mentioned again it kind of gets a little bit granular in terms of you know potentially Orlando might have some problems just with the amount of supply and then the you know low-wage in tourism industries being impacted more dramatically and that would lead to some weakness in Orlando but out outside of that maybe Houston you could argue you know somewhat but outside of those two and those those areas of the inner west Texas, southeast Florida should be but hold up you know relatively well and I would think that the main stress points will be out you know on the coast in California potentially portland we do think seattle holds up relatively well and then northeast in terms of you know New York and Boston as well so I think it's very locally market driven.
Buck: Yeah it's interesting you know we did we were a little worried about Houston too but our you know Houston portfolio is actually doing awesome it's not having any problems at all which is which was you know again, knock on wood that’s what it's been so far. Let me ask you another question you mentioned the pent-up demand of you know money on the sidelines waiting to get back in and you know and in many situations, they have to get back in right they're mandated to deploy capital and that sort of thing do you the one thought that I've had through this is you know multi-family and well multi-family in general has held up so well during this period of time does that potentially create a situation where you know the big money that's coming in starts looking at this even harder as potentially a little bit of a hedge or a little bit of safe haven. What what do you guys think is going to be the effect of that you know the relatively stable performance and then ultimately you know having all of this money on the sidelines,? Do you see paradoxical even further compression of cap rates over the next couple years? What's your thought on that?
Ryan: Yeah and so kind of pre-corona our forecast was for cap rates to continue to decline and you know taking a step back it was mainly driven by global factors with the aging populations across the globe that have built wealth up and all that investment needed to be placed somewhere. And so those trends were driving returns lower for longer and so those are the demographic that have not been affected by the pandemic. And so just from a global standpoint, we're expecting returns across all assets whether stocks bonds you know all classes of real estate whether it's multi or industrial retail office, etc those returns would continue to head lower. Now we've had the pandemic and we've seen multi-family and industrial hold up exceedingly well and who knows what to make of retail office and lodging just lots of pain and in those sectors and so if you need to be allocated to real estate then multifamily and industrial or where you want to be at least in the short term and especially if you're looking for consistency of returns and you know risk-adjusted on a risk-adjusted basis you know multi-industrial or have outperformed other asset classes and so really to get into the lodging office retail space probably more opportunistic mindset in terms of those assets may need to be repositioned etc and so I think a lot of that money that's out there is not looking to get there's a lot that's looking for that type of asset turnaround story but there's also a lot of money out there that needs the stability. And so that should continue to compress cap rates or put a really put a cap on that cap rates and so it would be no surprise if cap rates on an aggregate basis hold steady and maybe even decline despite a deterioration in short-term fundamentals and part of that is due to the long-term belief in apartments going forward and so yes there's a short-term dislocation where we expect some move-outs that you know this year actually there are a lot of move-outs that we expect and so there's going to be a lot of doubling up folks moving back in with their families but then there's going to be pent up demand as we as that recovery takes hold next year and that will be released and so we see leasing to be through the roof next year and then out into 2022. Then at the same time as that demand story improves in the short term we see starts decelerating dramatically so we've we're going from a 400,000 unit run rate to about 200,000 units by the early part of next year. And so new production is going to get cut in half now that we don't get any benefit of that immediately so we have to wait till later part of 2022 and 2023 before we see that slowdown and production really lift fundamentals and so I think everyone is seeing that yes there's some short-term disruption in the multi-family market right now, but the long-term drivers are there and if you have the capital to wait out this very painful period in the short term then there will be major benefits after that we should see after next year.
Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now?
Ryan: I think the worst is behind us in terms of the economy. I think that going forward we should continue to produce job gains on a monthly basis, though this next report could see some layoffs we'll see the consensus is one million one and a half. In terms of multi-family we do not think the worst is behind us we think that fundamentals will continue to deteriorate into the early part of next year we think that you know kind of right now in terms of year over year rent growth in the early part of this year let's call it three, three and a half percent we've since gone down to zero percent in the second quarter. So on a quarterly basis we've seen some dramatic rent cuts, again this is on a national basis and then as we move forward we see occupancy dropping by about three percentage points into the early part of next year, rent declines of about eight percent through the remainder of this year into the first quarter of next year and so no we do think that there will be some deterioration and fundamentals going forward. On the flip side of that might present some opportunities and so any assets that were purchased specially in your space in terms of if they were bought at the top of the market at the end of last year in the early part of this year and now that value-add story isn't there where you might not be able to get the rent bumps that you were expecting so some of those assets will have to be recapitalized and so that might present some opportunity as the year progresses but again like you said we haven't seen that materialized so far.
Buck: Yeah that's the tricky part right I mean it's sort of like I think when you're on the buy side here you're saying well I mean these prices that we're seeing right now you know with prolonged you know low-interest rates which we can pretty much guarantee at this point for a period of time and then the pent-up demand. It's sort of like okay well I mean this actually might be one of the better times to buy if you consider what could potentially happen in the next you know 18 to 24 months in terms of you know explosive growth. When you look at those indicators that you're you know that you're talking about that may lead to some of the more explosive growth metrics what markets come to mind the most for you?
Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now?
Ryan: Yeah so our general geographic areas that we like we like the southeast, parts of Florida, Texas and the inner west. We really like Atlanta, we like South Florida though there's a little more pain in the short term some of our clients are saying it kind of in terms of you know rent collections you know northeast but also yeah LA but then South Florida is outperforming those two areas but still lagging some of these other markets. So we like the Texas markets long term the interwebs you have Phoenix, Denver, Salt Lake as well. We like Seattle that's an outlier on the west coast but then the other markets whereas in the Bay Area we expect those you know rent growth numbers to average four, four and a half percent which stack up really well across the nation but for those markets that's a recession pretty much and so compared to what's normal and the cap rates you have to pay the rent growth numbers there kind of you know lackluster. So the midwest the markets they won't be hit as hard but still they don't get that explosive growth going forward and so we really like the inner West Texas, southeast of Florida markets and you know part of that has been driven being driven by the migration flows. So domestic migration numbers have really helped out all of these markets we've seen outflows from the northeast boston new york the bay area Southern California we've seen migration outflows from those markets into the you know inner west you know Las Vegas the inland Phoenix, Denver you know people moving from the coast into those markets and then you know also parts of texas as well but then in terms of the northeast the flows that are coming in to the Nashvilles the Charlottes, Raleighs, Atlanta, Florida markets we and then also Texas as well and so those trends have been accelerated at least in the short term, but it's important to remember that those have been going on for a decade at least even more and then other markets and so it's not anything new but at the margin that will support many of these other markets.
Buck: Yeah on the west coast I mean there's that flight to Arizona as well right from California. One of the things that you know is worth talking about is what effect this has had you know the pandemic and the recession on the lending market, with Fannie and Freddie and you know how that might be playing into any of the growth or lack of growth.
Ryan: Yeah I think on the financing side you know debt for stabilized assets it's there and it's cheap you may have to you know have higher reserves than you've had typically but for the most part it's there and so that's part of the appeal of buying assets right now with these record low interest rates. So I think for stabilized assets yeah it's there for new construction it is dried up considerably and this is a change in the last 30 to 60 days and so the fed does a survey each quarter of banks and their tightening of multi-family construction lending standards and that the latest report shows 70 percent of banks tighten their multi-family construction loans last quarter which we haven't seen those levels since 2008/2009. And so I think part of it's the lenders are trying to make sense of what they have in terms of all these other asset types in terms of real estate or retail, lodging, office loans, they're trying to you know spend a lot of time working those out and so then you add on the uncertainty in terms of the economic recovery etc, they've pretty much put a halt on new construction loans. And so that's been a big change here in the last two months call it. Then on the equity side I think returns have been increased but still available and interested but you know a lot of you know equity and especially focusing in on the new starts pipeline if all the deals that have been started are continuing and it's kind of a mixed bag from our clients in terms of are you seeing delays or actually some other clients that reported these they were able to speed up the timing in terms of getting able to get trucks into sites very easily and then also the construction workers that were on you know working on hotels motels those have come into the apartment sector and so that's provided more manpower in terms of getting these deals done. And so those that were under construction are continuing to proceed, those that were capitalized I think that but haven't begun those have been they haven't pulled out completely they just said let's press pause to see let's say can we get any break in construction costs over the next several months and so the equity and banks they're still willing to do it move forward on those deals that have been capitalized but are you know slow playing it. And then you get to the others where there's land sites and they hadn't been entitled and haven't been capitalized those deals we think have been shelved for right now and so it kind of where some opportunity could be is on the land side of you know potentially purchasing some land sites that might be teed up for development as we get further along in this recovery.
Buck: Again one of the things that you're saying though in terms of construction loans not being there again it helps us for those of us who have apartment portfolios already that are already there that that again goes to the issue of a simple supply and demand issue which we can benefit from if there's not a whole lot of new builds. You know this is a major driving variable in in apartment buildings nationally can you give us a little bit of the idea of you know just not being able to keep up with you know population growth in various parts of the country, can you give us a little bit of you know sort of a thousand-foot view on the perspective on how big of an issue that actually is?
Ryan: I don't know if it's that big of an issue you know on on the whole and I think that you know some of these higher growth markets in terms of where we've you know call it the Atlantas and North Carolina markets, Central North Florida, Texas, the inner west regions where we've seen large population growth statistics you know high growth markets but they're also they also tend to be the highest in terms of supply for housing and so it's more easy to build in those markets especially you know out as you get away from the know central cities etc and so where we've seen the the biggest barriers to supply are out on the coast and so we've seen you know job growth be pretty good in those markets but the supply hasn't kept up at all and so that's why you're seeing you know these big you know rent affordability you know problems in the coastal markets and so we think that supply not keeping up with the population dynamics is more of a coastal problem but then you know as you get into the markets that are more accepting of new development then you know we've seen housing supply increase at a rapid clip in many of these other markets I think you know Austin you know even through the June of this year permit activity for multi-family continued to set it reached big big levels and so I think year to date in Austin it's already pulled permits on almost 10,000 units already which is you know huge numbers. And so I do think that while these population growth numbers and some of these markets are you know off the charts especially compared to you know some of the coastal markets, that supply has been able to keep up there and so yeah you see pockets of where you know rent growth you know bumps up to you know five, six percent levels, it's especially that was the case in Phoenix and Las Vegas over the past two to three years where those markets were leading in terms of rent increases but they tend to you know be markets that you know will accept more new supply and so that will tend to even out over the long term.
Buck: How's Vegas doing out of curiosity because that one was just crushing it. It seemed it seemed a little dangerous you know it seemed like one of those markets where it's like wow is it real or is it one of those things that's just gonna go back to Vegas.
Ryan: Yeah exactly and yeah kind of thinking that you know before kind of goes back to your comment earlier about people moving from the coast to getting in their car and driving to the riverside and then Las Vegas and Phoenix and so it was benefiting from a real out-migration from expensive coastal California. That said that just the nature of this pandemic crushing leisure and hospitality and the conference circuit that the job losses in Las Vegas I think you know through April into May led the nation. We've seen some a bit of a bounce back there but really the question is you know how fast does the the conference you know a circuit come back, how fast are people willing to travel to casinos, I know they have already, but I think that pre-corona the growth was real and yeah absolutely now it's a little bit different you know market in terms of the cost and you don't want to go in there and if you're a developer you don't you know want to build a high-rise there and so your strategy is a little bit different but so far it's held up relatively well, all things considered, but still a lot of weakness that is materializing in Vegas.
Buck: Interesting stuff. Well listen I don't want to keep you all day long, Ryan, but it's been great talking to you. Where can we learn more about your work?
Ryan: Sure. Probably the easiest is wittenadvisors.com you can go there, all our contact information is there, feel free to reach out with a phone call or send me an email anytime and I'll be happy to give you more details on the services that we provide and how we add value to many clients that are in either owner, operators, developers, equity or lender clients.
Buck: Fantastic thanks again and we'd love to have you again you know in a few months to reassess where we are at.
Ryan: All right. Sounds good. Looking forward to it.
Buck: We'll be right back